Was 4/24/22 the Peak for Can Prices?

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Was 4/24/22 the Peak for Can Prices?

#1

Post by Pbama »

Just a few similar condition rare examples which appears to show that can prices may have peaked?
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Re: Was 4/24/22 the Peak for Can Prices?

#2

Post by mtracy64 »

Well, I'd say the Valley Brew cone peaked Sunday, and for some reason the Diane Baker Rheingold can did too.

The two Pabst cans above highlight a couple things of note, though. They show just how far above the pack the top couple of bidders are, especially when you factor in the fact that the cans that sold around $20K are both re-lidded and the Bock is additionally noted as being a bit short. So, we've seen extremely careless bidding in terms of amounts, and almost total disregard for things that used to (and should) cause a 25% or more hit on price.

The Ale is a tougher can than the Bock, in all grades, and this latest example is probably about what one would have expected to pay for a comparable example before auction hysteria set in. It's in far better condition than the previous two and may very well be the best example known.

Marc
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Re: Was 4/24/22 the Peak for Can Prices?

#3

Post by Beercanpete »

Speaking as someone for whom a $19,800 can is just about $19,700 above his budget (in other words, fairly ignorant of prices for top condition, top flight cans) ...

I have been thinking that prices may have peaked. It seems like a lot of cans in the auctions of the last couple of months have sold for really high prices--but not the insane, unbelievable prices that they might have brought a few months or a year or two ago. Of course, every auction seems to contain exceptions, but now they really do seem to be exceptions. Maybe a Morean or Good Guys auction has 3-5 cans like that, not 50-100 cans like that.
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Re: Was 4/24/22 the Peak for Can Prices?

#4

Post by Uncle Jackson »

I am guessing that there are 2 bidders willing to go to the highest prices. After 1 of them gets the given can, there is no one to bid up the other bidder next time one comes to auction. That means that the market is thin at the very top. Even at the lower prices, I am not sure the market is deep there either.

As for myself, I never pay more than $100. I still need many cans that can be found at cheaper prices. I am willing to wait.
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Re: Was 4/24/22 the Peak for Can Prices?

#5

Post by mtracy64 »

My impression is that there are two, maybe three, guys willing to pay tens of thousands of dollars above historical values in these auctions, and that seems to have started around the middle of 2021 with the All Star and Blue Boar Ale unless I'm forgetting something.

However, sales at $35K and above did exist in the hobby without these guys. I know of five long-term collectors who have spent that kind of money on single cans, though it seems one of the guys has stopped buying in recent years. One of these purchases was an auction win not long ago; the others were private sales from 2012 - 2019. I'm hardly an insider on the high-end market, so I assume there are others besides these guys. This price range had been reserved for cans believed to be unique in grade until such results became common in these auctions. In the context of the larger high-end market, it could be argued that the cans are worth that kind of money, whether we like it or not. The Royal and Silver cones from the Stark collection, for example, came out at $37.5K and have resold several times. I doubt anybody's lost money on them.

There's no shortage of buyers in the $15K+ range; I can think of close to 20 guys off the top of my head who have gone there at least once.

Another look at the Pabst Blue Ribbon Bock from Sunday sparked a long-dormant memory regarding an oddity of Pabst cans from the late 1930's. Pabst apparently ordered millions and millions of their vanity lids before the innovation of the beaded lid came along. They used the vanity lids up as top lids and used the beaded lids as bottom lids. Dan's previous auctions show this configuration on a couple of lower grade Bocks as well as Pabst Blue Ribbon Export Beers. The $29K Bock has a beaded top lid and a flat bottom lid, as one would expect from anybody except Pabst in this timeframe. A can with a state tax stamp on the top lid would have a beaded top lid with the stamp and a flat bottom lid like everybody else. This makes me think that the $29K Bock is rolled or twice re-lidded.

Additionally, the Bock is given an R-7 rating ongrade in USBC-OI and Kevin cites 15 quality examples known to him. If a couple more of these come out, I'd expect to see prices plummet. Prior to these auction results, I considered it on par value-wise with the Storz Winterbru at about $8K.

Attempting to gauge the market from these auctions is a bit precarious. There certainly are many encouraging numbers from this past auction but let's remember that Dan's Thanksgiving weekend auction also had us talking about a turning point, and subsequent auctions showed stronger results. The overall market has shown signs of softening aside from the high-end stuff, but I think it will continue to be a bit of a process. Recent Good Guys auctions and eBay continue to show surprisingly strong results, even for offgrade cans. A couple friends who spend time on Facebook report a significant uptick in returning collectors during the pandemic lockdown, and it seems they are here to stay.

The Pabst Old Tankard Ale from Dan's auction is a cautionary tale - the seller should have been able to get that money for the can without giving Dan a cut. As this sort of thing occurs more and more frequently, more good can will turn up at shows.

Marc
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Re: Was 4/24/22 the Peak for Can Prices?

#6

Post by kruegerbock »

I would truly *love* to see more good cans turn up at shows, but my observation has been the exact opposite. Private sales still happen, but it has been a long time since I saw a can at a show that I truly sought, even at a price well above what I'd be willing to pay.
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