Two Manhattan Ales - OI auction vs another

#1

I couldn't help but notice the difference in results for two Manhattan Ales sold recently and offer them here for comparison. A month or two ago, there was one that was sold on ebay. Pretty nice can as Manhattan Ales go, still had all its gold. That can brought $305.00. Rand's can brought $650 in the OI auction in spite of being in much worse condition. Congrats to Rand on that. Either the auction bidder(s) seeking a Manhattan Ale didn't know about the previous ebay can or they passed over it, only to bid much higher on a lesser can. Is this just an example of the power of Dan's auction venue? Or the excitement generated overall by Rand's collection selling? Or the weakness of ebay? I'm kinda shaking my head on this example, although I did think that the ebay can went cheap. Both are pictured below for comparison. Comments?

: Sold for $305 on ebay

: Sold for $650 in the OI auction

#2

That's very interesting. HUGE difference in condition.

#3

I think it a combination of all three factors you listed. A number of collectors have stopped using eBay, Dan's auctions have achieved stunning results for a number of other items, and Rand selling his OI's is the biggest cache of rare cans to hit the market since Gene put his collection up for sale several years ago.

I put Rand's Manhattan Ale on my watchlist the day the auction opened because I was curious how it would do relative to the eBay can I won. I was baffled when it shot up to $500 almost immediately. I bid $450-ish on the eBay can and figured it was 50/50 as to whether I'd win or not. It looks to be an indoor can that might clean up some.

As you said, good for Rand . . . and good for me also.

Marc

#4

It's difficult to speculate why such a big difference. It might just be a coincidence that somebody got a great deal on ebay and then overpaid in Rand's auction and it happen to be the same label.

I think Rand's auction will have a certain amount of influence on the market in the next few years. Many people will save the color flyer Dan sent out along with the results shown at the link below. If people see a certain can went for X dollars, they may be more likely to pay that now even if that price was previously considered a premium price. On the other hand, for the "bargains" in Rand's auction, people may see that as an indicator the market is softening for that particular label and pay less than they previously might have.

#5

I never accept an auction result as an accurate reflection of market value unless it repeats over time. An isolated auction result is, to me, nothing more than a snapshot in time. We've seen countless eBay results where a can sells for $X and the third-highest bid is in the neighborhood of $X/2. I've bid way too much on a few cans myself over the years because values are uncertain and the cans were important to me. I didn't want to be left wondering "what if I had bid $100 more?". I've usually won by a wide margin with this (lack of) strategy, but I've lost a couple too.

Market saturation was likely a factor in the sale price of some of Rand's cans. I was seriously interested in 46 of his cans, so I had to group them by priority and see what happened with bidding and adjust on the fly. I completely ignored over 25 cans I would have bid on if they came up singly. The alphabet confounded me too; I needed to hold back substantial funds for the P's and T's . . . I only spent 60% of what I was willing to spend.

Marc

#6

Condition is a really big factor on Ebay, I have thought I got steals on rare cans that were 1-/2+ only to see them sell for even less a year or 2 later. Meanwhile a pristine Blatz or Schlitz low pro will go for several times book value. I think a lot of buyers just gloss over off grade cans and miss some steals like this one, I know I have not noticed cans until the day of the auction and I usually check ebay every morning. Plus there are a lot of Ebay buyers who only want the really clean cans.

#7

An auction is, well, an auction. Which means it takes at least two bidders with a similar number in mind to get to the winning bid.

The Manhattan Ale can had 14 bids total. It doesn't appear Dan's site allows us to see each bid increment (like Ebay). How many unique bidders at the top willing to pay the higher number? Just two, or more than two?

On Ebay, I always try to keep in mind that it's basically a one week snap shot in time. Because Dan promotes his auctions and they last over a week, AND it is on Ebay live as well, he is bound to get more eyeballs than a typical one week auction on Ebay. Hence, potentially higher prices.

BTW, the results have now been updated with buyers premium included. The final bidder on the Ale can is paying $747.50 plus shipping.

#8

So the guy who is paying ~$750 for the auction can could have had a much nicer can for ~$450 a month ago.

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#9

You could find the same differences on ebay where you list the same 2 Manhattan Ales a week apart & get same results. Why, hard to say? I recently listed a $100 Detroit beer bottle on ebay that got $570. I could list one today & only get $100. A Buddy listed 3 common Faygo bottles worth $10 each or $30 bucks, he got around $750. I could list the same 3 today & get $30. Why? It's impossible to say. LEON.

#10

I was curious about this subject also. I'm an armchair quarterback on Saturday and Sundays in fall but it only affects myself. Auctions (to me) are kinda like taking a dump,some times you fell great when your done and sometimes not so much. Having said that I did give Rand's auction some considerable thought while driving back from the Atlantic show last night. I think Dan did a very good job of promoting the auction. It sounded like from his posts that Rand knew and felt comfortably with his discussion and the format of the auction. Like OhioCanGuy said it's an auction. I did wounder if splitting the auction auction up into say 3 or 4 different days would have helped buyers and seller ? Just my 2 cents worth.

#11

I thought the same thing with the ale can. The eBay can was a great can. As high as the Manhattan went, the Old Bohemian Lager went equally low...in my opinion.

#12

Agree with the 'snapshot' comments above. Also not mentioned is emotional involvement.

People list cans for buy it now prices on eBay and they don't sell. Then change it to an auction listing and it sells for more than the original buy it now price. Why? I'm not sure either but my best guess is that they get emotionally involved. Once human emotion kicks in, all bets are off. We've all done dumb stuff and questioned ourselves later on because we got emotionally involved in a situation. This leads to uneven final results. As Marc said, unless the result repeats over time it is not an accurate reflection of market price. Just consider it a one off.

#13

Not going to mention any names but I've seen people pass on the buy it now & bid the $9.99 opening bid & so now the buy it now disappears. Then the same person gets in a bidding war at end & is bidding more then the buy it now was & still loses. It's all Psychological. LEON.

#14

josh wrote: ↑Sun Jul 29, 2018 3:57 pm I thought the same thing with the ale can. The eBay can was a great can. As high as the Manhattan went, the Old Bohemian Lager went equally low...in my opinion.

I was the underbidder on a nicer Lager on eBay three weeks ago, again bidding $450-ish. I didn't bid on Rand's because of other priorities and because 'Lager' was mostly obscured. I agree, though, that it sold low.

https://m.ebay.com/itm/-/163125140317?_ ... cvip-panel

#15

JustJoe wrote: ↑Sun Jul 29, 2018 3:07 pm … Auctions (to me) are kinda like taking a dump,some times you fell great when your done and sometimes not so much ...

#16

Just wanted to add this to the thread.....

Where would one go to dump said Manhattan Ales in cans? Well there are postings in Arizona, Illinois and North Carolina but the NC is the only one I noticed that listed cans....cans for a measly 9 cents per can.....

Rocky Mount Telegram Fri Nov 3 1939

#17

I heard years ago of a few being dumped in South Carolina. Old Wisconsins too, but not in the same dump.

Marc

#18

I dumped one in Virginia about eight miles from my house. It did have a Va. tax stamp. There were a few beers with it, but sadly only one Ale.
Chris E.

#19

Jody (can't remember last name) dumped 2 or 3 Ales in Idaho about 10 yrs ago in grade 2ish condition. Really nice cans.